🌳 Decision Trees & Random Forests

Master tree-based algorithms, ensemble methods, and feature importance for robust machine learning models

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Decision Trees & Random Forests Curriculum

12
Core Units
~70
Key Concepts
10+
Algorithms
30+
Practical Examples
1

Introduction to Decision Trees

Understand the fundamentals of decision tree algorithms and their intuitive approach.

  • What are decision trees
  • Tree structure and terminology
  • Nodes, branches, and leaves
  • Decision tree intuition
  • Advantages and disadvantages
  • Classification vs regression trees
  • Non-parametric nature
  • Interpretability benefits
2

Tree Construction Process

Learn how decision trees are built through recursive splitting algorithms.

  • Recursive binary splitting
  • Greedy algorithm approach
  • Top-down construction
  • Stopping criteria
  • Tree depth and complexity
  • Leaf node predictions
  • Handling continuous features
  • Missing value treatment
3

Splitting Criteria

Master the mathematical foundations for optimal feature splitting.

  • Information gain
  • Entropy and impurity
  • Gini impurity
  • Classification error
  • Mean squared error
  • Variance reduction
  • Gain ratio
  • Chi-square test
4

Overfitting and Pruning

Learn techniques to prevent overfitting and create more generalizable trees.

  • Overfitting in decision trees
  • Pre-pruning techniques
  • Post-pruning methods
  • Cost complexity pruning
  • Minimum samples split
  • Maximum depth control
  • Cross-validation for pruning
  • Bias-variance tradeoff
5

Classification Trees

Deep dive into decision trees for classification problems.

  • Classification tree algorithm
  • Class probability estimation
  • Majority voting
  • Multiclass classification
  • Handling imbalanced data
  • Feature importance
  • Decision boundaries
  • Tree visualization
6

Regression Trees

Apply decision trees to continuous target variable prediction.

  • Regression tree algorithm
  • Mean prediction in leaves
  • Sum of squared errors
  • Continuous feature splits
  • Piecewise constant models
  • Non-linear relationships
  • Residual analysis
  • Tree-based smoothing
7

Introduction to Ensembles

Understand ensemble methods and why combining models improves performance.

  • Ensemble learning principles
  • Wisdom of crowds
  • Combining weak learners
  • Diversity importance
  • Bagging vs boosting
  • Voting mechanisms
  • Ensemble benefits
  • Computational considerations
8

Bootstrap Aggregating

Learn bagging technique as foundation for Random Forests.

  • Bootstrap sampling
  • Sampling with replacement
  • Out-of-bag samples
  • Aggregating predictions
  • Variance reduction
  • Parallel training
  • Bootstrap confidence intervals
  • Bagged decision trees
9

Random Forest Algorithm

Master the Random Forest algorithm and its key innovations.

  • Random Forest algorithm
  • Random feature selection
  • Mtry parameter
  • Bootstrap + feature randomness
  • Majority voting
  • Out-of-bag error
  • Variable importance
  • Hyperparameter tuning
10

Feature Importance

Understand how to measure and interpret feature importance in tree models.

  • Gini importance
  • Permutation importance
  • Mean decrease impurity
  • Mean decrease accuracy
  • Feature ranking
  • Partial dependence plots
  • SHAP values
  • Feature selection
11

Model Evaluation

Assess tree-based model performance using appropriate metrics and techniques.

  • Out-of-bag evaluation
  • Cross-validation strategies
  • Classification metrics
  • Regression metrics
  • Confusion matrices
  • ROC curves for forests
  • Learning curves
  • Model comparison
12

Advanced Topics

Explore advanced tree-based methods and practical implementations.

  • Extremely randomized trees
  • Gradient boosting intro
  • XGBoost and LightGBM
  • Handling categorical features
  • Missing value strategies
  • Scalability considerations
  • Implementation best practices
  • Real-world case studies

Unit 1: Introduction to Decision Trees

Understand the fundamentals of decision tree algorithms and their intuitive approach.

What are Decision Trees

Learn the fundamental concept of decision trees as flowchart-like tree structures for decision making.

Flowchart Rules Non-parametric
A decision tree is a flowchart-like tree structure where each internal node represents a test on an attribute, each branch represents the outcome of the test, and each leaf node represents a class label or continuous value.

Tree Structure and Terminology

Master the essential terminology used in decision tree algorithms.

Root Node: Top node with no incoming edges
Internal Nodes: Nodes with outgoing edges (decision nodes)
Leaf Nodes: Nodes with no outgoing edges (terminal nodes)
Branches: Edges connecting nodes
Depth: Length of longest path from root to leaf
# Decision tree terminology
tree_components = {
  "Root": "Starting point, first decision",
  "Internal Nodes": "Decision points (if-then)",
  "Branches": "Possible outcomes of decisions",
  "Leaf Nodes": "Final predictions/classifications",
  "Depth": "Number of levels in the tree",
  "Splitting": "Process of dividing a node",
  "Pruning": "Removing branches to avoid overfitting"
}

Decision Tree Intuition

Understand the intuitive logic behind how decision trees make predictions.

Decision trees mimic human decision-making by asking a series of yes/no questions. Each question splits the data into subgroups that are more homogeneous (pure) with respect to the target variable.
# Example: Should I play tennis?
# Simple decision tree logic

def should_play_tennis(weather, temperature, humidity, wind):
  if weather == "sunny":
    if humidity == "high":
      return "No"
    else:
      return "Yes"
  elif weather == "overcast":
    return "Yes"
  elif weather == "rainy":
    if wind == "strong":
      return "No"
    else:
      return "Yes"

# This mirrors how a decision tree works!

Advantages and Disadvantages

Understand the strengths and limitations of decision tree algorithms.

Interpretable Non-linear Overfitting Instability
# Decision trees pros and cons
advantages = [
  "Easy to understand and interpret",
  "No assumptions about data distribution",
  "Handles both numerical and categorical data",
  "Captures non-linear relationships",
  "Automatic feature selection",
  "Handles missing values naturally"
]

disadvantages = [
  "Prone to overfitting",
  "Unstable (small data changes = big tree changes)",
  "Biased toward features with more levels",
  "Can create overly complex trees",
  "Difficult to capture linear relationships",
  "Greedy algorithm (not globally optimal)"
]

Classification vs Regression Trees

Learn the differences between classification and regression decision trees.

Classification Trees (CART): Predict discrete class labels using measures like Gini impurity or entropy
Regression Trees: Predict continuous values using measures like mean squared error
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier, DecisionTreeRegressor
import numpy as np

# Classification example
X_class = np.array([[0, 0], [1, 1], [0, 1], [1, 0]])
y_class = np.array([0, 1, 1, 0]) # Binary classes

clf = DecisionTreeClassifier(criterion='gini')
clf.fit(X_class, y_class)
print("Classification prediction:", clf.predict([[0.5, 0.5]]))

# Regression example
X_reg = np.array([[1], [2], [3], [4], [5]])
y_reg = np.array([2.1, 3.9, 6.1, 8.0, 10.2]) # Continuous values

reg = DecisionTreeRegressor(criterion='squared_error')
reg.fit(X_reg, y_reg)
print("Regression prediction:", reg.predict([[3.5]]))

Interpretability Benefits

Understand why decision trees are considered highly interpretable machine learning models.

Decision trees provide clear, rule-based explanations for their predictions. Each path from root to leaf represents a logical rule that can be easily understood by domain experts and stakeholders.
from sklearn.tree import export_text
from sklearn.datasets import load_iris
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier

# Load iris dataset
iris = load_iris()
X, y = iris.data, iris.target

# Train decision tree
clf = DecisionTreeClassifier(max_depth=3, random_state=42)
clf.fit(X, y)

# Export tree rules as text
tree_rules = export_text(clf, feature_names